Increasing certainty of seasonal malaria chemoprevention impact: A mathematical model using routine data in Burkina Faso

Authors: Monica A de Cola, Benoit Sawadogo, Cheick Campaore, Chuks Nnaji, Sidzabda Kompaore, Arantxa Roca-Feltrer, Sol Richardson, Christian Rassi, Patrick Walker, Lucy C Okell

Age-related variations in routine data can be attributed to other interventions, non-malarial fevers and treatment-seeking, which mask the impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention.

Evidence from randomised controlled trials has demonstrated that seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) can prevent approximately 75 percent of malaria cases. However, data from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) in Burkina Faso indicate an increase in cases among children under five since SMC was implemented. This could indicate changes in treatment-seeking or reporting, or that SMC is not achieving the desired effect. We developed a framework utilising a mathematical model to assess whether SMC impact is consistent over time, across different metrics and among various population subgroups.

This poster was presented at the Multilateral Initiative on Malaria (MIM) Society's 8th Pan-African Malaria Conference.